Dubai Real Estate Market Slows Down Amid Global Tensions
After a record-breaking year in 2025, Dubai's real estate market has taken a hit due to the ongoing US-Iran war and regional conflict.
- Transaction volumes dropped 24% between January and March 2026, with deals falling 36% from their all-time high growth sprint.
- Total Q1 2026 sales stood at 52,266 transactions, a 6% rise in volume compared to the same period in 2025.
- Prices have remained steady across most segments, with Jumeirah Village Circle rates remaining around AED 1,500 per sq. ft.
Regional Conflict and Its Impact on Dubai's Real Estate Market
The US-Iran war and regional conflict have had a significant impact on Dubai's real estate market, with transaction volumes and prices affected.
- The conflict led to a 24% drop in transaction volumes between January and March 2026.
- Prices have remained steady, with some segments experiencing a spike in rates due to low volumes.
- The slowdown is uneven, with apartments and off-plan sales taking the sharper hit, while villas and townhouses continue to see price growth.
Buyers Becoming More Selective, Seeking Under-Market Deals
Buyers are becoming more selective, seeking under-market deals and good value for their money.
- Investors are still scouting, but they are looking for under-market deals now.
- Long-term renters are taking advantage of the current market conditions to step in and purchase properties.
- Distress selling remains limited, with most investors willing to ride out the current phase.
Off-Plan Market Still Attracting Buyers, Despite Slowing Momentum
The off-plan market remains attractive to buyers, despite slowing momentum in the overall market.
- Developers are reintroducing incentives reminiscent of the post-covid cycle, including extended payment plans and reduced booking amounts.
- The number of off-plan properties on offer is a major draw for buyers, particularly in the Indian diaspora, who represent 22% of all property transactions in Dubai.
- The off-plan market has been running at near-record intensity, with well over 150,000 units launched in 2025.
Industry Experts Weigh In on the Current Market Conditions
Industry experts believe that the current market conditions are a necessary correction, following a period of record-breaking growth.
- "This current cycle is a necessary transition for a market that has grown at a record-breaking pace," said Inder Bhagnani, founder at RK-RE.
- "The minute this war is over, the prices will stabilize," said Bhagnani.
- Marissa Peer, a British therapist and former Los Angeles resident, said she is not panic selling and will wait until the market stabilizes.
Key Statistics:
- Total Q1 2026 sales: 52,266 transactions
- Transaction volumes fell 24% between January and March 2026
- Prices remained steady across most segments
- Off-plan market has been running at near-record intensity, with well over 150,000 units launched in 2025