Top listed realty firms outperform broader housing mkt moderation in FY26

Pre-sales growth for leading developers was largely in the mid-teen range, supported by calibrated launches and disciplined supply additions. Analysts said developers also turned increasingly selective on launches, carefully assessing demand signals and avoiding inventory build-up. Management teams are cautiously optimistic for Q1 FY27 and more confident on H1/FY27, but a lot will depend on the geopolitical situation normalising, said Akshay Shetty, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Karan Khanna, lead analyst for real estate at Ambit Capital, said consolidation remained the defining trend, with customers increasingly preferring grade-A developers with strong execution track records. He noted that top developers continued to witness significantly better launch absorption compared with the rest of the market. Markets such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and the National Capital Region (NCR) remained relatively strong, driven by end-user demand, GCC expansion, and infrastructure-led absorption. On the earnings front, analysts said earnings remained supported by premiumisation, stronger realisations, and pricing power in select micro-markets, although developers are now balancing margin preservation with sustaining sales velocity. Price hikes have become more calibrated compared with the aggressive increases seen over the past two years. Earlier, in Q4 FY26, housing sales across the top Indian cities declined 2.2 per cent year-on-year, according to PropTiger. Anuj Puri, chairman, Anarock Group, said the quarter did not point to a generalised slowdown but rather deeper consolidation in favour of large developers with healthy balance sheets, execution discipline, and strong brand equity. However, according to Vijay Agarwal, sector lead – infrastructure at Equirus, the underlying demand environment warrants closer monitoring, as the sector settles into a mature, moderated rhythm from its previously elevated pace. The companies saw temporary disruptions amid geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia during late March, particularly impacting NRI-led luxury demand. However, analysts said the impact appeared sentiment-driven and short-lived rather than indicative of a broader demand collapse. Shetty noted that input-cost inflation due to the West Asia crisis appears manageable. Lodha estimated construction cost inflation at 3-5 per cent, with only a nominal margin impact. Oberoi indicated a 2-3 per cent cost increase, largely covered within project contingencies and not expected to affect the bottom line immediately. Godrej also called the impact manageable, with a limited quarterly margin impact of 0.1-0.2 per cent, helped by forward contracts and potential small price hikes over the project cycle. According to Gautam Shahi, senior director, Crisil Ratings, large listed developers posted around 21 per cent growth in sales value for the full fiscal year. He added that larger players continued to gain market share because of differentiated offerings and stronger execution capabilities. DLF, Godrej, and Prestige achieved their respective FY26 sales guidance, while Lodha missed its pre-sales guidance for the year, as March saw selective deferral of sales due to the Iran war, leading to pre-sales being Rs 470 crore below the FY26 guidance (Rs 21,000 crore). The company’s pre-sales for the year stood at Rs 20,530 crore, up 16 per cent year-on-year.